United States Goalie Breakdown For 4 Nations Face-Off Opener
United States Goalie Breakdown For 4 Nations Face-Off Opener
Blog Article
In a short tournament like the 4 Nations Face-Off, goaltending could make the difference between success and failure for each of the four countries participating in the round-robin tournament that runs from Wednesday to Feb. 20. So, just like NHL.Com has done since the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, we've charted the goals given up by each nation's goalies during the 2024-25 NHL regular season to better understand their strengths and weaknesses and see what patterns emerge that might be targeted. Today, it is the United States, which opens the tournament against Finland at Bell Centre on Thursday (8 p.M. ET; ABC, ESPN+, SN, TVAS).
Winnipeg Jets
Hellebuyck, who won his second Vezina Trophy last season with the Winnipeg Jets, was named starter on Wednesday for the United States. With that in mind, each of the 89 goals allowed by Hellebuyck this season was tracked, and the majority of this analysis focuses on him.
Five-hole: There's not much that jumps out from Hellebuyck's well-balanced goal chart, though 10 goals between the legs may seem like a lot for one of the world's best, especially given the negative stigma so often attached to pucks that go "through" a goalie. But at 11.2 percent, that total is slightly less than the 12.8 percent average for the more than 8,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017. It's also a product of the incredible patience that makes Hellebuyck special, rarely defaulting prematurely to both knees. That said, he will use that patience to make old-school, one-pad-down, half-butterfly saves on open looks rather than dropping both knees to the ice, and that can create five-hole exposure, especially if a shooter can sell high and deliver low. Of course, that's easier said than done against a goalie who reads releases as well as any.
Traffic and tips: It's almost become cliché to talk about taking sightlines away from a hot goalie, especially during the playoffs, but with Hellebuyck's incredible ability to read and anticipate plays and shots, it's even more important. Screens have been a primary factor on 17 percent of the goals scored on Hellebuyck this season and were an even bigger part of the playoffs last season. Traffic was a factor on seven of 24 goals (29.1 percent) the Colorado Avalanche scored while eliminating Hellebuyck and the Jets in five games in the Western Conference First Round best-of-7 series last season. The number of deflection goals were also notable, with eight scored this season and three in that playoff series with Colorado, in part because Hellebuyck's conservative depth makes it harder for him to cut off pucks close to where they are being tipped.
Create chaos: Generating traffic isn't just about going to the net when a shot is coming. It can also make it harder to see and read passes and beat the puck to the next spot, all things Hellebuyck does as well as any goalie, and leads to more scrambles off pucks that hit legs, sticks and skates before making it to the goalie. Hellebuyck, whose side-to-side movements from his knees have more moving parts and slight delays simply because he has a slightly narrower butterfly than many of his peers, has given up 19 goals (21.3 percent) on those types of scrambles this season, higher than the tracked average of 14 percent. It also leads to more rebounds, which have accounted for 12 goals this season, and those can also force more of those lateral recoveries.
East-west attacks: Creating lateral plays across the middle of the ice was long considered an important way to attack a goalie considered by many to be the best in the NHL in straight lines, and Colorado scored seven of 24 goals (29.1 percent) this way, making those kind of down-low plays in the playoffs. Hellebuyck has given up 12 such goals and handled those plays well this season.
Dallas Stars
With Hellebuyck the starter in a short tournament, we limited the breakdown on Stars No. 1 goalie Jake Oettinger to the last 50 goals given up this season.
Low laterals: The numbers along the ice outside a goalie's pads on these charts are often an indicator of backdoor tap-ins where the goalie had little chance, and that includes six of the nine low shots that have gone in on Oettinger's blocker side, some which are a result of getting stuck outside his posts on the other end of those low cross-ice passes.
Glove side: Seeing the biggest number over the glove might make it tempting to target, but the reality is, these numbers don't represent save percentages, and the 10 high-glove total is below the 23.6 percent tracked average. The glove side did become a trend last season, however, including several open looks among the 17 of 45 scored on that side in the playoffs, and his fingers-up glove position means shots just over the pad were also a popular target.
Active rebounds: Rebound goals (three) weren't a problem in this sample after giving up more than the tracked average last season, but it remains important for opponents to understand second chances will bounce harder and travel further off the Bauer leg pads used by Oettinger.
Boston Bruins
Like Oettinger, we only tracked the past 50 goals against Swayman.
East-west and up: Swayman's ability to hold his edges and still generate lateral push power even as he gets into a lower, wider stance has made him one of the NHL's top goalies when it comes to defending the increase in side-to-side attacks. But the reality of that lower stance and matching hand position is a greater exposure to high shots seen in the location totals, even if his 11 goals off east-west plays are right around the tracked average of 22.1 percent.
Get it off quick: One-timers accounted for 18 percent of the goals in this small sample, making it important to catch Swayman moving, even if he typically moves well.
Screens and deflections: Those two attack types account for 13 of the 50 goals, and Swayman's tendency to set up deeper in his crease behind traffic makes it harder to close down on tips.